Parker, Amie and I attended the annual CREB Forecast yesterday at the gorgeous new BMO Centre and enjoyed hearing from industry leaders about their thoughts for our city’s future.
This year’s CREB Forecast came on the heels of Donald Trump’s inauguration as the President of the United States. At this time, the threat of tariffs across Canadian goods and services is real, making economic uncertainty in our country palpable. The real estate market in our city is not immune to the effects of economic uncertainty, however, projections for the year ahead remain optimistic and the energy of the day was positive.
It’s important to reflect on the year that was, in order to paint the picture of where we are headed. In 2024, Calgary’s real estate market experienced the second year in a row of unprecedented price growth of 10%-15% depending on the property type. High interest rates didn’t stop our city from bucking national trends as other major cities in the country saw flat or declining markets. Interprovincial migration continued to impact outcomes, with Calgary’s prices soaring while still feeling like a bargain for shoppers coming from Ontario or BC.
The message from Calgary Real Estate Board’s 2025 Forecast was clear: It’s important to remember that the pullback expected in Calgary’s market this year is just a move towards a point of more balance and demand is expected to remain above long-term trends.
We are forecasted to see over 26,000 sales again this year which is similar to the previous few years and 20% higher than long term trends – this is still a very strong housing market for Calgary.
Projected Benchmark Price Increases by Property Type:
Apartment: +1.8%
Townhome: +3.4%
Semi-Detached: +3.1%
Detached: +2.9%
We get it – as a homeowner, it can be an adjustment to see prices only increase by 2% after such large increases over the last four years. It’s easy to start to worry about your investment.
For reassurance, if you purchased a home for $500,000 and it appreciates in value by 2% annually, in 5 years time, that same home is worth $552,040. For the investment of a warm place to sleep at night, and the peace of mind and security that comes with home ownership, that seems to be a worthwhile purchase.
It’s expected that supply levels will continue to rise across all categories and price points. That is, there will be more listings on the market in addition to more new housing construction, giving buyers more choice. However, we aren’t expecting so many listings that prices drop (*caveat – this can change big-time if our country heads into recession this year instead).
For first time buyers, this may look like a more relaxed, less competitive market. For people who have thought about selling for a couple years but chose not to because there was nothing to buy or move to – this year could be a great time to make that lifestyle change. Keep in mind that there are always certain market segments that are tighter than others and we may still see competing offers and quick sales in these areas (specifically condos under $300,000 and houses under $700,000).
Calgary Real Estate Board’s Chief Economist, Ann-Marie Lurie cited a number of important considerations she projects to have an impact on the market in 2025.
Slowing Migration from Record Highs: Calgary’s population is expected to grow by 3.1% this year, down from 5.6% in 2024. Our city’s population growth is projected to remain higher than the provincial average of 1.9% (down from 4.4% in 2024). Because the Calgary-Edmonton rivalry is always real, it’s interesting to note that Edmonton was expected to see higher population growth than Calgary last year, however, more people still chose to come here. The growth in our population will support demand in the real estate market for years to come.
Rising Vacancy Rates: Much of the increase in housing supply has been in the purpose-built rentals category. This means we are seeing rising vacancy rates driven by higher completions and slower international migration. This impacts not only rental prices but trickles down to the apartment resale market as investors may not see the same return and may offload properties, increasing the supply in the market. By the same token, as an investor, it may not be as appealing to purchase a unit. Similarly, when the supply of rentals is decent and the rent prices are not exorbitant, there isn’t as strong of a push for renters to become buyers.
Affordability Spectrum: Even as new construction reached record highs in 2024 and lending rates are projected to continue dropping, there are still barriers to ownership and affordability concerns. It is clear that this will be a key priority for all levels of government in the year ahead. As interest rates come down, we could start to see more first time buyers get into the market as the cost to own aligns with their rental payments. The highest inventory for condos is in the $300,000 to $400,000 category, which is affordable for many people even on a single income. Also relevant to affordability is employment. New jobs are projected to slow to 2.3% growth in 2025, down from 4.4% in 2024. Unemployment is expected to rise by 0.2% which, interestingly, is primarily due to young people and new immigrants which typically don’t have much of an impact on the housing market.
In all, Lurie emphasized that she “Still expects to see some price growth, but not to the same extent.” She added, “I expect a much smaller level of price growth this year. Sales are still expected to stay relatively strong.”
You may be asking, who wins? Is now the time to buy, sell, or hold? As always, our answer is – it depends. A balanced market means there is general alignment in terms of supply and demand. When it comes to real estate, this is a good thing. CREB forecasts that we can expect the trend of balance to continue. The answer to the question will depend on what your needs and objectives look like.
In the face of economic uncertainty, it is easy to feel like it’s time to hold, but if you are buying and selling in the same market, we believe the biggest decision-making factor is how it impacts your lifestyle today.
In all, amidst political uncertainty in our country, expected lending rate drops and our city’s polarizing blanket rezoning policy, there is still positive energy and optimism in our city.
As full-time realtors, we are active in the market representing both buyers and sellers across price ranges and inventory categories. We are happy to discuss your options and support you in determining the best plan forward for your situation.
If you would like a copy of the full Forecast Report, please reach out and we’ll be happy to email you the PDF.
We look forward to supporting you in your real estate endeavours this year,
Madison, Amie & Parker
