We attended the Calgary Real Estate Board forecast today and always love getting insights from our in-house economist. We are lucky in Calgary to have such a strong team behind us at the Board with very robust, accurate statistics.
Today’s forecast really anchored on the theme of stability. 2026 is not slated to be as dramatic as recent years, one way or the other. Before we can discuss where we’re headed, let’s take a quick look at 2025 and how we got here.
Detached Homes
- Prices rose from January to March before dropping every month through to the end of the year
- December prices ended down just 2.6% year-over-year but down over 5% from the March 2025 peak
- Despite the price decreases, inventory levels were at just 2.7 months of inventory, still technically a seller’s market to finish off the year
- Prices dropping toward the end of the year were likely influenced by lack of good supply – what was left on the market in Q4 wasn’t as desirable and buyers were making lower offers
- Days on market to sell rose to 52 after a low of 25 in April
Semi-detached Homes
- Similar to the detached market, prices rose early in the year but peaked a bit later, in May
- By December, prices were down about 4.5% from the May peak
- Inventory levels finished the year at 3.98, in balanced territory but leaning toward buyers
- This is our smallest property category, with about 2,100 sales through the year, compared to over 11,000 detached, 3,800 townhomes and 5,400 condos
Townhomes
- The townhome market was hit harder, with more than a 7% drop from the spring peak to the end of the year
- Much of the inner-city redevelopment has focused on townhomes for the past couple of years so this has added to supply and demand has not kept up
- Inventory levels are similar to the semi-detached market at 3.82, nearly a buyer’s market
- Days on market ranged from 27 to 53 through the year
- Townhomes performed very well in 2022, 2023 and 2024 so if you bought one in December 2021, you have still seen a 38% increase over four years
Condos
- Historically the most volatile property category in Calgary, last year was no exception with prices down 7.4% year-over-year in December and down 8.3% from their peak in March
- This comes on the heels of a prolonged downturn in the condo market from 2015 to 2021 followed by a recovery in 2022-2024, which saw prices exceed their previous highs
- The year finished at 4.55 months of inventory, fully in buyer’s market territory
- Dropping rental rates and added rental availability contributed to renters feeling less pressure to get into the ownership market
- Lower rates of net migration into Alberta also contributed to lower demand, at the same time as elevated levels of new construction added to supply
And on to 2026! The story that really came out of today’s forecast presentation was that no news is good news. We are in a stable market. The jobs market is stable, interest rates are stable (unlikely to change much through the year) and while fewer people are moving to Alberta, the number of new homes being built should also drop, which will keep our supply-demand ratio in check overall.
The big reason that the market softened in the second half of 2025 was a matter of supply, not of demand. Our sales numbers (demand) are still in line with long-term trends in Calgary, but we did see a LOT more new construction (hitting record highs) and this is what caused supply to increase and the market to cool.
If fewer new homes are built in 2026 and 2027 but demand stays steady, we should see a very stable real estate landscape for the foreseeable future.
One exception is in the apartment and condo market, which is expected to have a softer market. When we use the term apartment, we refer to purpose-built rental buildings (i.e. all units in the building are rented out) whereas condos are units that are individually titled and owned. Some condo owners still choose to rent their places out, which adds even more to the rental supply.
Because many apartment and condo buildings take several years to complete and they create hundreds of new units at the same time, this sector of the market is less nimble. If you can imagine a developer with a few potential projects in the pipeline and their detached homes aren’t selling as well, they can simply pull back on the number of houses they are completing. But if they are in the middle of an apartment building with 150 units, it’s an all-or-nothing kind of question about completing the project.
There are currently about 12,000 apartment units currently under construction as well as another 8,000 condo units. These should all complete in the next 1-3 years. So you can see how we have a bit of an over-supply problem in this sector.
Our message to renters is this: You are in a stronger position than you have been for the past few years. If your rental contract is coming up for renewal, you have more leverage to keep your rental rate the same or even negotiate a reduction. If you are happy renting, you should have a stable market with lots of supply for the next couple of years. If you ultimately want to own for lifestyle or financial reasons, there are lots of affordable condos and townhomes on the market.
Our message to landlords is this: If your lease is coming up for renewal this year, you are unfortunately not in a strong position. So if you have been thinking about selling the property to capitalize on other investment opportunities or to simplify your life, doing so sooner than later could make sense. If you want to continue keeping your rental property in your investment portfolio, plan to hang onto it for at least a few more years but keep in mind you may need to lower your rent to keep attracting the best renters.
Our message to upsizers is this: If you are moving from a condo to a house, you are going from the weakest market segment to the strongest, so keep prioritizing your savings and talk to us (and your mortgage broker) early to put you in the best position you can to make this lifestyle move.
Our message to downsizers is this: The detached and semi-detached markets will be the strongest two market segments this year so talk to us about preparing your home to sell at its best to maximize value and enjoy putting a few extra dollars in the bank. If you are moving into the condo market, there should be lots of selection and soft prices this year or you could find a nice rental for a reasonable price as you contemplate your next move.
Ultimately real estate is hyper specific. The market stats can vary widely according to which zone in the city, which price range and which property type. For example, the months of inventory for detached houses in the NE zone from $800,000-$999,999 is 9.4 (almost impossible to sell a place!) whereas the months of inventory for detached houses in the NW zone between $500,000-$600,000 is 1.6 (almost impossible to find a place to buy!).
And real estate needs and goals can also vary according to family situation (who are your caring for?), employment (is your job stable or volatile?), pets (have or want to have one?), finances (in a more risk-tolerant time of life or approaching/in retirement) and much more.
That’s why being a realtor is more than just putting a house on MLS. It’s helping you dive into the nuances in our marketplace and helping you sort through the priorities in your own life to see if a move makes sense for you.
And don’t forget that even if the forecast is right and there is only a 0.1% increase in detached prices for the year ahead, that may mean a 4 or 5% increase this spring when activity tends to be strongest, followed by a pullback for the second half of the year. So there may not be the smoking deals that buyers are hoping for over the next few months.
We are always happy to discuss your unique, individual situation with a call or a good cup of coffee together 🙂
