2020 felt like a confusing year in many ways. Trying to stay on top of the latest government restrictions and advisories, trying to figure out how to make sourdough, trying to make plans of any kind.
And, in my world, trying to understand and predict the real estate market.
The normal seasonal fluctuations that we see in Calgary – busy spring months, slower summer – went out the window. When it felt like the world was ending at the beginning of the pandemic, it seemed likely there would be a massive drop in both sales in prices in 2020.
Instead, we saw a big dip in April & May and then a ramping up of sales and even a small increase in prices throughout the rest of the year, including the busiest month of December since 2007.
The number of detached house sales per month surpassed 2019’s number for every month from June to December. The months of supply (i.e. how hot the market is, with smaller numbers being hotter), trended downward through those months as well, entering into ‘seller’s market’ territory.
Detached house prices ended the year 2.8% higher than the previous December.
Keep in mind, the vast majority of the detached houses that sold were in the lower price ranges, with houses under $600,000 making up 77% of all the detached sales in Calgary.
In the condo world, it was definitely a different story. The number of sales per month lagged well behind 2019’s number, except for November and December, which saw a small resurgence.
The benchmark price for condos is down 2% over the previous December.
With the resurgence in sales late in the year and the months of supply dipping lower, perhaps condo buyers are realizing that it’s just too good of a deal to not buy in Calgary right now! Prices are down substantially from the highs of 2014 and interest rates are at all-time lows. It’s hard to imagine it being much more affordable to buy a condo in Calgary, with 76% of the sales going under $300,000.
With so many balls in the air regarding health advisories and economic policies, it is very hard to predict where prices will go over the next 12 months.
The Calgary Real Estate Board will be releasing their forecast for the year on January 26 and I will send out the details then. However, I believe their predictions (and any other economist’s predictions, for that matter) need to be taken with more than a grain of salt as we continue down this uncertain path.
In the meantime, many people are choosing to make a lifestyle move regardless of economic forecasts. If now is the right time for you to make a move, drop me a line!